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Author: Garth Belkins [Back to Article List]
Article:
A Horse's past performaces are the main cirteria that a
handicapper looks at when deciding on his bets. Considering
other aspects of the horse and race, the handicapper can not
just rely on past performances and "Speed Figures." Countless
factors affecting today's race and horses have to be taken into
consideration.
When a handicapper considers the effects of pace, track biases,
and trips, he is dealing with a finite number of items. It's
those infinite items that have to be also factored into the
equation.
Today's Racetrack Bias
Hasty and crucial decisions have to be made on whether the bias
really exists today. If, so should the previous strategy be
discarded and follow the bias of the day in his betting or go
against the bias.
Generally, if a bias existed yesterday, or the track has a
consistent bias tendency, handicap the card on the presumption
that the bias will still be there. Watch the races carefully and
if the bias still exists, handicap accordingly.
If there has been no bias, a higher standard of proof is
established, before conceeding that one has suddenly appeared.
If a strong bias does exists, respect it and bet accordingly.
Today's Race Pace
How many horse' in today's races are habitual front-runners? If
there are three or more habitial front runners in the field, it
is best to ignore any good speed figures they have earned on the
lead. Assume that off-the-pace runners will have the chance to
deliver their maximum performance.
In races with two distinct front-running types,it is often
impossible to predict the winner. The speedesters can run one
and two around the track or duel each other into extinction. If
one of the two doesn't show his speed, the race could turn into
a one-horse runaway.
Change of Distance
Change of distance does not necessarily affect the speed figure
earned at one distance from the speed figure earned at the
second distance. Every horse has distances at which he is more
or less effective. Sometimes it is realitively easy to predict
how a horse will fare when he attempts to go a longer distance,
and sometimes it is not.
Generally, when a horse is trying to go for a longer distance,
and has a superior speed figure to his rival's, he will be very
formidable. If such a horse can get loose on the lead, he will
be hard to beat, even if, genetically, he is not a natural
distance runner.
Dirt vs Turf, and Vice Versa
Speed figures earned in sprints and routes represent the same
level of ability, and so too do numbers earned on turf and dirt.
Trying to relate dirt and turf figures is largerly futile,
because dirt and turf racing are fundamentally different games.
A theoretical horse with the same amount of talent on both grass
and dirt will run the same speed figure on each, it is pure
coincidence if a horse is equally gifted on each surface.
Layoffs
Horses often produce top performances---and at top speed
figures---after a layoff. Current thinking among trainers is to
run horses "fresh" to bring them into major stakes after three-
or four-week layoffs. Improved veterinary techniques have
enabled horses to recover from injuries quickly and to win at
first asking.
Speed Figure users should remember one special caution when
evaluating laid-off horses. The figures of young horses tend to
improve as they age---typically about 1 to 1 1/2 points per
month. If a young horse returns to competition after a six month
layoff, his speed figure might improve 6 to 9 points.
Weight
Because weight is a relatively tiny component among all the
factors affecting a horse' performance, it should not affect the
betting decisions.
Mud
Horses may win in the mud simply because they are better suited
to run in the mud. Others may not do as well in the mud because
they just don't like running in the mud.
A handicapper should note the horse' numbers improved or
declined the last time he ran on mud. This will be the best
indicator for adjusting the speed figure and betting.
Negative Class Drops
A horse should be view with suspicion if he has been running
well recently and is entered for a sharply lower claiming price.
Certain stables make a habit of dropping horsess in class to
grab a purse.
Bettors should pay close attention to the tote board. When a
horse of superior class is ready to run a good race, insiders
will usually know it and wager accordingly. Conversely, if a
dropdown appears ice-cold in the betting, his problems have
probably already caught up with him.
Physical Appearance
Judging the physical condition of race horses and the way it may
change from race to race is the most neglected important area of
handicapping It is recommended that handicappers concentrate on
studying horses'appearance and relating it to their level of
performance. Several good videos on this subject are available.
Lasix
This is diuretic antibleeding medication. It is used to improve
a horses racing ability. Horses tend to improve sharply when
they are treated with Lasix for the first time.
Usually, a horses' form would steadly deteriorate until he gave
a terrible performance. When he got Lasix, he would rebound
sharply to the level of his best form.
About the author:
Garth Belkins is the senior sports editor for 365SportsNews.com
Disclaimer
Opinions expressed in articles on this website are those of the author(s) of each story or article and not necessarily those of Shadow Ridge. Shadow Ridge does not necessarily agree with, support, or endorse any definitions, treatments, opinions or statistics stated by these authors. They are entirely responsible for the content of their respective story(s) or article(s).
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